Source: ExpansiónMX
The hardline approach to violence, a model used by President Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, is gaining increasing support in Central America, a region that has been historically plagued by insecurity, whether related to gangs or drug trafficking.
Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Honduras are three countries that have adopted measures similar to those implemented by the Salvadoran leader, despite the criticism he receives from human rights organizations.
Costa Rica votes for a Bukele enthusiast
Costa Ricans will elect a president next Sunday with a right-wing candidate as the clear favorite, backed by her promise of a tough stance against the growing drug-related violence in a country considered for decades to be one of the safest in Latin America.
Laura Fernández, a 39-year-old political scientist and supporter of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele's anti-gang war, is leading in the polls with around 40%, the minimum needed to win in the first round.
Twenty presidential hopefuls are vying for the position.
Fernández leads by 30 points over his closest rival, center-right economist Álvaro Ramos, by capitalizing on the popularity of President Rodrigo Chaves, who captivates a large part of the population with a confrontational and sarcastic rhetoric.
A two-time minister under Chaves, Fernández promises to complete a prison inspired by Bukele's mega-prison for gang members and to impose states of emergency, as the Salvadoran president did to end insecurity, although civil society organizations accuse him of violating human rights.
Unlike what happened in Honduras, Donald Trump has not intervened directly in the campaign; however, Chávez is an ally of the United States. Last year, he welcomed 200 deported migrants to Costa Rica, most of them Asian, and prevented Chinese companies from operating the 5G network in Costa Rica due to alleged espionage risks.
During his administration, crime reached historic highs, with 17 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. Chaves blames the judiciary and the opposition-majority Legislative Assembly for being too lenient with criminals.
Therefore, the self-proclaimed "continuity candidate" is asking for votes to achieve the legislative majority (38 deputies) necessary to reform the Constitution and the judicial system.
Their adversaries accuse Chaves and Fernández of being "populists" and of leading the country towards authoritarianism.
"At what point did we go from dreaming of being the Switzerland of Central America to dreaming of being El Salvador?" asked leftist candidate Ariel Robles in a debate, contrasting neutral and peaceful Costa Rica with a country with a "dubious" democracy.
The opposition fears that Fernández will follow Bukele's playbook, who claims that to make his country one of the "safest" in the world he replaced prosecutors and judges after gaining control of Congress. This accumulation of power allowed him to establish indefinite reelection.
Costa Rica is "in an incipient 'authoritarian transition' process, whose subsequent evolution will depend on the electoral outcome," said Víctor Hugo Acuña, a historian at the University of Costa Rica, in an essay he shared with AFP.
Analysts also warn of the weakening of the welfare state, a source of national pride for Costa Rica. Although poverty fell from 18% in 2024 to 15.2% in 2025, Costa Rica remains among the six most unequal Latin American countries according to the Gini index.
Honduras changes its security strategy
Conservative Nasry Asfura, an ally of Donald Trump, assumed the presidency of Honduras on Tuesday with the promise to combat insecurity "head-on" in the most violent and impoverished country in Central America.
"Security, facing the fight against insecurity head-on, have no doubt about that," said Asfura, 67, as he took the oath of office in a simple ceremony at the Congress.
The president proposes reinforcing the police presence in conflict zones to achieve territorial control and implement an anti-extortion plan.
Honduras is plagued by the Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18 gangs, declared terrorist organizations by Trump and also present in the United States, El Salvador and Guatemala.
Asfura has indicated that he will end a state of exception declared by his predecessor, Xiomara Castro, similar to the one that underpins the anti-gang war of his Salvadoran counterpart, and criticized by human rights organizations.
Washington has said it hopes to strengthen security cooperation with Honduras, although shortly before the elections it pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, a fellow party member of Asfura, who was serving a 45-year prison sentence in the United States for drug trafficking.
“The combination of structural impunity, institutional capture, prioritization of private interests and weakening of civic space poses significant risks to the country’s governance and democracy,” says Ana María Méndez Dardón, director for Central America at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), in an article.
The specialist points out that the Castro government delivered very poor results in dismantling the structures that sustain corruption and impunity in Honduras, whether due to incapacity or lack of political will.
“The failure to establish an International Commission against Impunity (CICIH) with the support of the United Nations, despite this being one of his promises before assuming the presidency, is one of his main shortcomings,” says Méndez Dardón.
Guatemala faces a crisis of violence
The escalation of gang violence in Guatemala exposed the weaknesses of the security apparatus, but also an alleged plot against the government to shield a reported alliance between politicians and criminals.
The murder of ten police officers over the weekend in retaliation for the occupation of three prisons where gang members had taken dozens of hostages led the social democratic president Bernardo Arévalo to decree a state of siege, second only to a state of war.
There is "zero control" over the prison system, asserted former anti-gang prosecutor Juan Francisco Solórzano on the political analysis program TanGente Podcast, broadcast on digital platforms. He also questioned why intelligence services had not anticipated the attacks.
The criminal offensive "is not accidental, it is due to deliberate operations, driven by political-criminal networks," said former anti-corruption prosecutor Juan Francisco Sandoval, exiled in the United States since 2021, on X.
Sandoval was dismissed by Attorney General Consuelo Porras, an enemy of President Arévalo and sanctioned by the United States and the European Union under accusations of covering up corruption.
Frequently cited by the government and civil society organizations as part of the network allegedly protecting criminals, the prosecutor is due to be replaced by the president in May. Porras attempted to block Arévalo's inauguration two years ago through legal maneuvers.
The wave of violence from the Barrio 18 gang dates back to last July when five of its top leaders were transferred to a high-security prison, as they continued to order murders, sell drugs and extort, according to the government.
Following a series of riots, about twenty members of that gang escaped in October from another prison amid accusations of complicity by the authorities, which caused a crisis that ended in the dismissal of the Minister of the Interior and other officials.
The events of January 18 were already planned as part of the plan to "delegitimize" the government, said former prosecutor Solórzano.
The riot at the Renovación I prison was led by Aldo Dupie, alias "El Lobo", who demanded to be sent to a prison with less security and more amenities such as air conditioning, a large bed and home delivery restaurant service, according to the government.
After being subdued, he was publicly presented kneeling, in handcuffs and covered in blood, after which the attacks began.
This spike in violence comes on the eve of the change of attorney general, as well as the magistrates of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the Constitutional Court, the highest judicial body that in recent years has been accused of acting in favor of corruption networks.
